Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS): 2Q26E Preview: Strong Core Business but Sizable FX Loss Again; Humanoid Robot in Progress

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS): 2Q26E Preview: Strong Core Business but Sizable FX Loss Again; Humanoid Robot in Progress

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08 Jul 2026 13:11:57 ET │ 15 pages

Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS)

2Q26E Preview: Strong Core Business but Sizable FX Loss Again;

Humanoid Robot in Progress

CITI'S TAKE

While we expect Hengli to deliver 30% YoY revenue growth in 2Q26E driven Buy

by strong excavator component demand, we estimate its net profit to come

in at Rmb888mn in 2Q26E, up by only 9% YoY (up 36% QoQ) and 2% ahead Price (08 Jul 26 15:00) Rmb108.570

of Visible Alpha consensus due to ~Rmb200mn FX loss in 2Q26E (vs. Target price Rmb160.000

~Rmb26mn FX gain in 2Q25). Regarding the humanoid robot business, Expected share price return 47.4%Hengli is currently supplying planetary roller screws to support its US client

to produce ~100 units of humanoid robots per week, and based on our Expected dividend yield 0.6%

industry talk, the US client could ramp production to ~1k/~19k in 3Q/4Q26 Expected total return 48.0%

and further increase volumes to 200k in 2027. We therefore estimate Market Cap Rmb145,573MHengli’s humanoid robot revenue contribution to jump from ~1% in 2026E

to ~8% in 2027E. We recommend investors use the FX or fund-flow-led US$21,505M

share price weakness to accumulate the stock. Reiterate Buy.

2Q26E GPM – We expect Hengli’s GPM to stay flat YoY at 44.0% in 2Q26E as Mexico

and ball screw & linear guide plants could negatively impact the overall GPM before Price Performance

the two factories scale up. Upside surprises, if any, could come from the ball screw (RIC: 601100.SS, BB: 601100 CH)

and linear guide plant due to the spill-over effect on these products.

Compared to machinery OEM – While the downstream machinery OEMs’