MTZ Steps Inside the Fence with Acquisition of Superior Group; Maintain Overweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

MTZ Steps Inside the Fence with Acquisition of Superior Group; Maintain Overweight

jected to generate Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

2026E revenue of ~$1.6-1.7bn and adjusted EBITDA of ~$225-250mm, Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

implying a ~14-15% EBITDA margin, with a 2023-2026 revenue CAGR of 2025A 2026E 2027E

approximately 80% — nearly doubling the business in 2026 vs. 2025 alone. Q1 164 284A 392

The company carries ~$1.4bn in backlog as of May 2026, and MTZ Q2 275 386 529

Q3 374 489 593

management expressed high conviction in the 2027 outlook of $2.2-2.5bn in Q4 338 460 561

revenue and $250-275mm in adjusted EBITDA, noting the estimates are FY 1,150 1,618 2,076

conservative and exclude any revenue synergies or cross-selling benefits.

Style Exposure Superior's workforce has grown from ~800 to ~3,000 employees over the past

three years, representing a 50%+ CAGR, underpinned by a fully organic

growth track record and a scalable union labor model with deep IBEW/NECA

relationships. For the remainder of 2026, MTZ expects Superior to contribute

$800-900mm in revenue and $100-115mm in adjusted EBITDA, with $0.50-

0.65 of adjusted diluted EPS accretion. Pro forma net leverage is expected to

be modestly above 2.0x at close, declining below 2.0x by year-end 2026, with

MTZ committed to maintaining its investment grade credit profile.

• Multiple looks attractive vs. precedent transactions. The $1.65bn purchase

price implies a 6.9x multiple on 2026E adjusted EBITDA — a meaningful

discount to recent electrical and mechanical contractor acquisitions, which

have generally transacted in the 9-11x range (see chart below for a detail of

precedent transactions from peers). On a forward basis, the deal implies

approximately 6.3x 2027E EBITDA, which we view as particularly attractive