Global Metals & Mining: Q2‘26 previews – modest recovery only, copper skew for H2‘26 and cost headwinds likely debates

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Global Metals & Mining: Q2‘26 previews – modest recovery only, copper skew for H2‘26 and cost headwinds likely debates

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08 Jul 2026 11:35:23 ET │ 52 pages

Global Metals & Mining

Q2’26 previews – modest recovery only, copper skew for H2’26 and

cost headwinds likely debates

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

Q2’26 results season for global miners will kick off with ANTO reporting its ephrem.ravi@citi.com

production results on 15 July. Our expectations for the quarter are for a AC Krishan M Agarwal

modest operational recovery only, as we see the production skew to

continue to be towards H2’26. Cochilco data for copper implies that a slow +44-020-7986-4092

recovery for Chilean production in Q2’26, together with a lack of mining krishan.agarwal@citi.com

ACgrade recovery, is likely to reflect in only modest uptick for copper Thiago Ojea

production in the quarter. For the stocks reporting Q2’26 earnings, we see +55-11-4009-2017

idiosyncratic factors in play, with Garpenberg accident–led earnings

headwinds for BOL, while alumina prices are likely to continue to offset an thiago.ojea@citi.com

otherwise strong earnings evolution for NHY. We expect a broader trend of Ijeoma Ihuegbu

guidance fine-tuning to play out with higher energy prices. Lower gold and +44-207-986-3914

silver prices are likely to reflect in marking-to-market of cost guidance ijeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com

across the sector. Detailed previews below.

Shashi Shekhar, CFA

Operational trends likely to show modest sequential recovery — Escondida +91-22-4277-5028

copper production should continue to move lower as BHP’s guidance has envisaged shashi.shekhar@citi.com

progressively lower grades in 2026. Production at RIO’s Oyu Tolgoi, ANTO’s Los