Colombia: Remittances as a consumption anchor

研报英文原文证据摘录

Colombia: Remittances as a consumption anchor

Juan Goldin (57 601) 869 8746 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A Njuan.goldin@jpmchase.com

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A 08 July 2026

Diego W. Pereira (1-212) 834-4321

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Colombia: Remittances as a This steady flow has increasingly become an important sup-

port for households, amounting to almost 5% of household

consumption anchor consumption and 4.5% of household disposable income in

recent years (Figure 2). Together with expansive fiscal and

• Remittances have become an important source of sup- income policies, remittances may have helped sustain house-

port for households, boosting disposable income hold consumption even as monetary policy remained restric-

• The long-run evidence positions remittances as a sec- tive on average over the period.

ondary but genuine anchor of consumption

Figure 2: Remittances impact on consumption

• A cyclical tailwind: a pick-up in remittance growth %, share Household consumption Disposable income

drives a pick-up in household consumption growth 5.0

• The consumption channel of monetary transmission is 4.5

somewhat narrower than in a remittance-blind model 4.0

3.5Remittances into Colombia have shifted from a marginal

external inflow to a macro-relevant pillar since the pandemic. 3.0

After a brief dip in 2020, inflows rebounded sharply and have 2.5

risen every year since. To put the shift in perspective, remit- 2.0

tance growth has averaged 13.8% oya since 2021, reaching a 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: DANE, BanRep and J.P. Morgan

record of roughly US$13bn over the last twelve months, north

of 3% of GDP, up from just above 1.5% a decade earlier (Fig-

Remittances arrive in USD, but what reaches the household

ure 1).