JPM | US Healthcare: BIIB Tau Preview, PFE 2Q Prev, BBOT and RLAY Initiations, Hospitals, CNC, VERA, SNDX IPF Scenario Table, HC Services 2Q Prev Call Tomorrow, ABSI CEO Call Today

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | US Healthcare: BIIB Tau Preview, PFE 2Q Prev, BBOT and RLAY Initiations, Hospitals, CNC, VERA, SNDX IPF Scenario Table, HC Services 2Q Prev Call Tomorrow, ABSI CEO Call Today

portfolio (Leqembi/Skyclarys/etc) will continue to have more gradual uptake, BIIB’s pipeline has

a number of derisking events over the next 6-18 months – most notably litifilimab SLE data later this year and felzartamab

(CD38) AMR data in 2027.

Would be curious to hear any thoughts here, especially in regard to positioning (pls reach out if you would like to discuss relative

positioning for other names as well).

On the data itself, I am not hearing a super clear bar from investors. Chris Schott is expecting a mid-20s to low/mid-30s%

improvement on CDR-SB depending on dose. BIIB recently announced that while the ph2 CELIA trial did not meet the

primary endpoint of a dose response across CDR-SB, diranersen slowed clinical decline across a range of cognitive endpoints for

all doses and particularly at the low dose (60mg). BIIB has also commented that it is reasonable to think about diranersen having

a cognitive impact in the range of the anti-amyloid therapies (with the 60mg dose potentially above that level). With Kisunla and

Leqembi having shown a 25-30% slowing of cognitive decline in ph3 trials based on CDR-SB, we are anticipating diranersen

efficacy in the low/mid 30s at the 60mg dose and in the low/mid-20s at the higher doses. BIIB has pointed to a ~50% reduction in

tau being the right level to aim for in patients – this is in-line with CSF tau reductions seen in the ph1b, albeit with different

dosing regimens). We will also be looking to see if there are any trends/correlations between tau reductions and efficacy. We are

expecting safety to be clean and consistent with previous data.