Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Remy Cointreau SA (RCOP.PA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e

Organic sales growth (%) 0.2 4.0 5.5 5.4

Organic EBIT growth (%) (11.5) 4.8 12.6 10.0

EBIT margin progression (organic)

(259) 15 118 82

(bps)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Recovery trajectory of US Cognac RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

Chinese consumer demand Inflection in underlying US Cognac 1.75 Tariffs and regulations consumption/share gains from competition EPS

Long-term value of aging inventories Increasing cognac penetration in China (€) 1.34 2.53

1.73 Favourable FX moves (USD strengthening)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Elimination of risk of US tariffs

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT 0-10% 138 219 China and India Acceleration in macro downturn and consumer (€, mn)

0-10% India trade-down 171

0-10% Japan US consumption failing to recover

0-10% Latin America Asia sales recovery slower than expected 92

0-10% MEA Unfavourable FX moves Net income 69 133

0-10% UK (€, mn) 89

10-20% Europe ex UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 30-40% Mainland China

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 30-40% North America

Inst. Owners, % Active 72.8% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1x

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

HF Sector Net Exposure 0.2%

MS ALPHA MODELS Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

5/5 3 Month inconsistenttrends. Long/Shortwith orRatiomay =notLongreflectExposurebroader/ Shortmarket MOST Horizon

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /