Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Tianqi-LithiumTianqiIndustriesLithiumInc. (002466.SZ)Industries Inc. (002466.SZ)

Volume growth in both upstream resources and midstream conversion capacity

PRICE TARGET Rmb83.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Base case, DCF model. We assume a WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash ▪Tianqi has access to high-quality and low-

flow of 2.0% is applied to Tianqi’s own business beyond our forecast period of 2026-33. Our cost upstream lithium mines with volume

A-share price target is also based on these assumptions: growth from Greenbushes and Yajiangcuola

A-H premium of 40% projects, and is actively expanding

HKD/RMB exchange rate of 0.87 midstream conversion capacity.

is in an upcycle amid strong ESS Rmb73.95 ▪Lithium

demand.

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rmb42.00 Rmb93.96

MS PT

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates Consensus Rating Distribution

72% Overweight

RISK REWARD CHART 22% Equal-weight

6% Underweight

MS Rating

CNY

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rmb101.00Rmb101.00(+70.64%)Rmb101.00(+70.64%)(+70.64%)

100 Risk Reward Themes

Rmb83.00Rmb83.00(+40.23%)Rmb83.00(+40.23%)(+40.23%) Electric Vehicles: Positive

75 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Rmb59.19Rmb59.19Rmb59.19

25 Rmb36.00Rmb36.00(-39.18%)Rmb36.00(-39.18%)(-39.18%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE Rmb101.00 BASE CASE Rmb83.00 BEAR CASE Rmb36.00

25.6x 2026e P/E 21x 2026e P/E 9.1x 2026e P/E

Larger-than-expected lithium price Lithium price improvement expected in Smaller-than-expected lithium price

improvement; quicker-than-expected ramp- 2026; Tianqi's own projects could ramp up improvement; later-than-expected ramp-up