Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Tianqi-LithiumTianqiIndustriesLithiumInc. (9696.HK)Industries Inc. (9696.HK)

Volume growth in both upstream resources and midstream conversion capacity

PRICE TARGET HK$66.20 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Base case, DCF model. Key assumptions, a WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free ▪Tianqi has access to high-quality and low-

cash flows of 2% applied to Tianqi’s own business beyond our forecast period of 2026-33. cost upstream assets with volume growth

from Greenbushes and Yajiangcuola HK$65.88

projects, and is actively expanding

Consensus Price Target Distribution HK$41.00 HK$85.43 midstream conversion capacity.

MS PT

rate the stock Overweight, seeingSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪We

lithium price tailwind from solid

downstream ESS demand.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

HKD 62% Overweight

HK$81.00HK$81.00(+104.86%)HK$81.00(+104.86%)(+104.86%) 31% Equal-weight

8% Underweight

80 MS Rating

HK$66.20HK$66.20(+67.43%)HK$66.20(+67.43%)(+67.43%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

40 HK$39.54HK$39.54HK$39.54 Electric Vehicles: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

20 HK$28.40HK$28.40(-28.17%)HK$28.40(-28.17%)(-28.17%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE HK$81.00 BASE CASE HK$66.20 BEAR CASE HK$28.40

14.9x 2026e P/E 18.2x 2026e P/E 6.4x 2026e P/E

Larger-than-expected lithium price Lithium price improvement expected in Smaller-than-expected lithium price

improvement; quicker-than-expected ramp- 2026; Tianqi's own projects could ramp up improvement; later-than-expected ramp-up