US FinTech: V/MA Preview: Healthy Outlooks & Attractive Valuations

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US FinTech: V/MA Preview: Healthy Outlooks & Attractive Valuations

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08 Jul 2026 03:07:50 ET │ 23 pages

US FinTech

V/MA Preview: Healthy Outlooks & Attractive Valuations

CITI'S TAKE

Bryan Keane AC

We look forward to V/MA’s CY2Q26 earnings with a positive bias given solid +1415-658-4236

monthly payment volumes and further outsized VAS growth. We expect V’s bryan.keane@citi.com

F3Q adj. net revenue growth at the low-double digit guide, supported by

resilient U.S. spend, VAS/network product momentum, and back-half William Tang

pricing despite higher incentives and lower volatility. We expect MA’s CY2Q +1-212-816-8743

adj. net revenue growth to be broadly in-line with low-end of low double- william1.tang@citi.com

digit guidance, with cross-border travel noise from the Middle East,

portfolio shifts, and holiday timing partly offset by stable switch trends, Adam Butler, CFA

resilient CNP ex-travel, and healthy underlying spend. Longer term, +1-212-816-5181

VAS/security, agentic commerce, stablecoins/OpenUSD and commercial adam.butler@citi.com

payments reinforce the networks’ trusted orchestration role. Any potential

sale of FISV’s debit network would have a non-material impact to V/MA’s Payments, Processors & IT Services

revenues, in our view. Given healthy outlooks (expect both to reiterate FY26

guidance) and attractive valuations, we reiterate Buy on V/MA with target

prices of $400/$675.

– Spend Trends Remain Healthy; Cross-Border Travel is the Key Swing Factor.

The core payments backdrop remains healthy entering CY2Q26 results, with the

clearest near-term debate centered on cross-border travel rather than domestic

consumer weakness. Visa F2Q26 results were strong across operating drivers,

with net revenue +17% Y/Y, or +16% cc, payments volume +9% cc, processed