European Equity Derivatives Strategy: German reform momentum theme; Q2 Earnings Preview; buying cheap Euro STOXX 50 gamma ahead of ASML earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

European Equity Derivatives Strategy: German reform momentum theme; Q2 Earnings Preview; buying cheap Euro STOXX 50 gamma ahead of ASML earnings

Davide Silvestrini AC Global Markets Strategy

(44-20) 7134-4082 08 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

davide.silvestrini@jpmorgan.com

Reform momentum gathers pace in

Germany: index and thematic trades

JPM’s Economics team noted that Germany’s reform momentum is gathering pace.

Building on the positive reception of the Pension Commission proposals, the

government has set out a broad package of further measures spanning the tax system,

the labour market, bureaucracy reduction, industrial policy and trade, with a

commitment to legislate quickly and with more proposals to come over the summer.

While no single measure matches the scope of the proposed pension reform, taken

together they could add up to a meaningful shift.

This matters for markets because the backdrop has been a persistently negative narrative

around the delivery of the fiscal plans, reinforced by the depressed private capex

numbers. Credible reform delivery, coupled with the fading drag from the energy shock,

gives scope for a reset in sentiment and should support a more durable lift for German

equities.

Another factor that helps is the weak positioning in German equities, which we have

highlighted in the recent past. DAX futures positioning remains firmly net short, but is

showing signs of improvement recently (Figure 1DAXnetAgentfuturespositioningremainsfirmlyinnet-shortteritory).

Figure 1: DAX net Agent futures positioning remains firmly in net-short territory

Net Agent open interest notional for DAX futures (€ Bn)

Source: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy, Eurex.

Markets are already showing some sensitivity to this story. In our J.P. Morgan European