India Banks 1QFY27F results preview: Growth intact; margins under mild-to-moderate pressure

研报英文原文证据摘录

India Banks 1QFY27F results preview: Growth intact; margins under mild-to-moderate pressure

Global Markets Research

7 July 2026India Banks

EQUITY: BANKS

1QFY27F results preview Research Analysts

India Banks

Growth intact; margins under mild-to-moderate pressure Ankitankit.bihani@nomura.comBihani - NFASL

+91 22 403 74135

We expect banks under our coverage to report modest core-PPOP growth (12% y-y / 1% q-q),

Shreyas Pimple - NFASLled by soft NII growth (+9% y-y / +2% q-q) and controlled opex, while seasonally higher credit shreyas.pimple@nomura.com

costs keep PAT growth muted at +6% y-y / -4% q-q (Fig.2). Loan growth momentum stayed +91 22 403 74029

intact in June, though the more important signal this quarter is that divergence now runs within

Shreya Shivani - NFASLcohorts, not just across them (Fig.10). We build in a mild-to-moderate NIM decline across our shreya.shivani@nomura.com

coverage, FB (Buy) being the exception, with the drag sharper for BOB (Neutral) and AXSB +91 22 403 74804

(Buy) (Fig.11). Softer G-sec yields through the quarter should provide a treasury tailwind, a

reversal from last quarter's drag. Management commentary on FCNR (B) mobilization and its

potential to narrow the funding gap will also be a key area of focus this earnings season. Asset

quality trends remain steady, though a delayed monsoon is a watch item into 2H. Our top picks

are ICICIBC, HDFCB (replacing AXSB) and KMB (all rated Buy).

Loan growth resilient, but the dispersion has moved within cohorts

System credit growth held at 17.7% y-y / 3.7% q-q as of 15-Jun-26 (Fig.19). Pre-quarter

updates show q-q loan growth ranging widely from -1%% to 5.2% across our coverage banks,

and the spread holds up even within cohorts, not just across them. The private vs PSU vs mid-