BUSINESS SERVICES: US CONSTRUCTION CHARTBOOK: 2Q26: Muted non-resi spend, indicators mixed

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BUSINESS SERVICES: US CONSTRUCTION CHARTBOOK: 2Q26: Muted non-resi spend, indicators mixed

July 8, 2026 03:20 AM GMT

BUSINESS SERVICES: US CONSTRUCTION CHARTBOOK

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

Europe 2Q26: Muted non-resi spend, indicators mixed

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL

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• The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6% in May MoM but was up c.34% yoy and remains near all-time-

highs. The ABI is slightly softer, averaging 46.4 in April and May, vs 47.7 in 1Q. US non-residential Annelies Vermeulen Equity Analyst

construction data shows c.4% yoy declines in 2026 YTD. Annelies.Vermeulen@morganstanley.com

+44 20 7425-4367

• At the recent fiscal 4Q in June, Sunbelt Rentals reported seeing stable local non-residential construction Remi Grenu

markets, and robust mega project and national account activity. Equity Analyst

Remi.Grenu@morganstanley.com

• Among the rental companies, Sunbelt Rentals shares are broadly flat since its US listing in March, with +44 20 7425-0552

shares down 12% since FY26 results in June, while United Rentals shares are up c.34% since SUNB re- Zach Al-Qaryooti

listing in March. SUNB now trades at a discount to URI (~15x 2026e EV/EBIT vs URI on ~18x). Research Associate

Zach.Al-Qaryooti@morganstanley.com

• Sunbelt Rentals guides to rental revenue growth of 5-8% for FY27 (April year-end), while United Rentals’ +44 20 7425-2400

guidance is for 6.5% total revenue growth at the midpoint for FY26 (Dec year-end).

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC

• On the distribution side, Ferguson shares are up c.3% YTD and now trade on ~20x 2026e P/E vs US peers

on ~25x. Ferguson guides to L-MSD revenue growth for FY26. The US RMI index is projected to grow c.2% Angel Castillo Equity Analyst

year on year in 2026 (c.1% in 2025), and broadly flat in Q1 2027.