Novonesis: 2Q preview: broad-based organic growth delivery to reassert the compounding case

研报英文原文证据摘录

Novonesis: 2Q preview: broad-based organic growth delivery to reassert the compounding case

p sales), production of fermented milk and cheese in the EU has so far in (44-20) 7742-8733

2026 remained above historical averages, growing 2-4% YoY (Figure 6EUproductionoffermentedmilk-Figure sam.edmunds@jpmorgan.com

8YoYchangeinEUproductionoffermentedmilkandchese-3monthmovingaverage), with US yoghurt retail volumes growing at MSD - HSD% (note). High- Key Changes (FYE Dec)

protein dairy market (where NSISB has higher content) is seeing faster growth Prev Cur Δ

and prompting broad-based capacity expansions by key dairy players (Table 8Sumary Adj. EPS - 26E (€) 2.05 2.11 2.9%

Adj. EPS - 27E (€) 2.17 2.24 3.3%

ofrecentcapacityexpansionsbydairycompanies). In bioenergy (~20% of group sales), the US saw a 3% YoY increase in fuel Adj. EBITDA - 26E (€ mn) 1,618 1,659 2.5%

ethanol production in 2Q26 (Figure 11YoYchangeinUSfuelethanolproduction), with Brazil’s corn-based ethanol Adj. EBITDA - 27E (€ mn) 1,753 1,805 3.0%

output growing 8-9% YoY in Apr-May (Figure 12YoYchangeinBrazilcorn-basedethanolproduction). In Household Care (~20%

of group sales), higher enzymes penetration in EMs combined with ongoing Style Exposure

broadening of product offerings should support a superior organic growth

profile. On the other hand, in our recent conversation, NSISB IR noted that

there’s been some demand softness in Human Health/Probiotics in the US, but

this is a relatively small part (3-4% of group sales).

• Household Care “stretch-the-core”: The recent NSISB deep-dive seminar

for this division reinforces the pathway to outgrow underlying markets via

penetration/mix and adjacencies; industrial cleaning is a meaningful new

whitespace (TAM ~$15bn), with NSISB developing biosolutions for