Japan Banks: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Watching whether guidance is revised at 1Q results to reflect BOJ rate hike in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Banks: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Watching whether guidance is revised at 1Q results to reflect BOJ rate hike in June

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 July 2026

Japan Banks: Earnings Outlook

(Apr-Jun)

Watching whether guidance is revised at 1Q results

to reflect BOJ rate hike in June

We expect many major regional banks that did not announce a share buyback in Japan Equity Research

May to announce buybacks during the Japan bank sector’s 1Q FY2026 results

Banks

reporting season (Figure 4). An even more important watchpoint is whether banks

will incorporate the June BOJ rate hike into their guidance. As shown in Figure 3, Takahiro Yano, CFA AC

many banks have not factored in the rate hike. If their guidance takes into account (81-3) 6736-8616

takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

interest rate sensitivity to only a single rate hike, some banks may decide that they

Kohichi Takano

do not need to revise guidance, but if any banks move quickly to revise guidance (81-3) 6736 8621

with 1Q results, we would view this positively as a sign of confidence in business kohichi.takano@jpmorgan.com

progress. Among the megabanks, we believe Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

(MUFG) is the least likely to report eventful 1Q results. We do not expect MUFG

to revise guidance with 1Q results, as its guidance already assumes a mid-2026 rate

hike. Among other banks, we expect Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (SMTG) and

Japan Post Bank (JPB) to post higher YoY rates of profit growth. We expect SMTG

to record large gains on the sale of stocks and one-off profits in 1Q. We expect JPB

to see a rebound in profit, as net interest income (NII) in the international division

was weak in 1Q FY2025 due to a time lag.