JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / TSMC / Commodity tech: APAC Technology - Specialist Sales Commentary Hardware - Semiconductors

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / TSMC / Commodity tech: APAC Technology - Specialist Sales Commentary Hardware - Semiconductors

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

08 July 2026

JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / TSMC / Commodity tech

Duncan Wagner

+852 2800 8874

duncan.wagner@jpmorgan.com

SEC: investors modeled SEC 2Q OP W80-85trn, thou the name was driven by local expectations which were W95-

100trn.Investors continue to question Jay when we believe retail clears their positions out of the leveraged ETFs. We also

continue to receive investor questions when we expect de-grossing to come to a halt, which VAR (Value At Risk) calculation is a

function of volatility * delta, as SEC 30-day vol has edged up to nearly 107, and Kioxia to 127 (10-day vol has spiked back to

147) - constraining managers’ ability to re-gross unless vols drop. Investors also concur w/ Jay/Mio NAND thesis of increased

CSP KV Cache offloading inference demand, yet remain circumspect of Japan retail leverage involved in Kioxia, by far the most

actively traded stock. Investors agree memory producers need to spend capex to fulfill customers’ demand; Mio has highlighted

TEL/SCREEN as gaining SEC/MU DRAM etcher and cleaning equip share, respectively. Thou SPE names do tend to trade

weaker according to a second derivative basis if the market believes memory prices are peaking or set to decline.

TSMC: initial feedback to our buyside bars’ request indicate Gokul’s GM estimates are above, thou investors model higher

FY26/27 capex estimates, as the market anticipates positive forward capex commentary to fulfill customers’ backlogged demand

link. Mio/Gokul believe Lasertec key catalyst remains TSMC A14 mass production qualification, as investors anticipate timing

towards FY26-end/early-FY27.