Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– HDFC -AssetHDFCManagementAssetCompanyManagementLtd (HDFA.NS) Company Ltd

(HDFA.NS)Valuations offer upside; a high-beta, high-probability recovery play; OW

PRICE TARGET Rs3,065.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Probability-weighted 70% base, 10% bear and 20% bull. Skew reflects a structural bull cycle ▪HDFC AMC has a strong retail franchise,

led by demographics and household asset allocation shift vs short-term geopolitical risks. pan-India presence and brand recall.

Our P/E assumptions, applied to estimates for the 12 months ending Mar-28, are as follows: ▪We forecast AAAUM growth of 13% in F27

Base: 28x: the midpoint of the band of 22-33x, supported by our DCF for low double-digit as geopolitical uncertainty weighs on equity

sustainable revenue growth. markets. We see recovery over F2H27 and

Bull: 33x: high end of band. F28 driving 37% AAAUM growth in F28.

Bear: 22x: low end of band. ▪Revenue yields have progressed better

Rs3,056.65 than expected with proactive commission

rationalization by the company. We expectConsensus Price Target Distribution Rs2,610.00 Rs3,250.00 EPS growth of 15% in F27 and 35% in F28. MS PT

remains attractive with decentSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Valuation

upside potential.

RISK REWARD CHART Consensus Rating Distribution

89% Overweight

INR Rs4,425.00Rs4,425.00(+58.98%)Rs4,425.00(+58.98%)(+58.98%) 11% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

3000 Rs3,065.00Rs3,065.00(+10.12%)Rs3,065.00(+10.12%)(+10.12%)

Rs2,783.40Rs2,783.40Rs2,783.40 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Negative

2000 Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Rs1,635.00Rs1,635.00(-41.26%)Rs1,635.00(-41.26%)(-41.26%)