Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Multi -CommodityMulti CommodityExchange of India LtdExchange(MCEI.NS) of India Ltd

(MCEI.NS)Strong ADTR momentum, earnings benefit from geopolitical volatility

PRICE TARGET Rs3,665.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Probability-weighted 65% base, 5% bear and 30% bull. Skew reflects potentially higher ▪Average daily transaction revenue grew

exchange volumes. sharply in F4Q26, reflecting strong action in

Base case value derived by applying a target P/E of 40x to our Mar-28 EPS estimate. We commodity prices. We build in ADTR of

expect the stock to trade at a ~20% premium to its mean one-year forward normalized P/E Rs109mn in F27 and Rs120mn in F28; these

since listing in F2012, reflecting strong ADTR in recent months. Due to its asset-light are 26% and 18% below its Jan-26 peak and

business model, we consider P/E to be the most appropriate valuation metric. 14% and 5% lower than its 4QF26 ADTR,

respectively. Rs3,505.46 ▪Valuation does not appear cheap.Consensus Price Target Distribution Rs2,850.00 Rs3,867.00 However, the business model benefits from MS PT

elevated geopolitical uncertainty asSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

exchange volumes rise with heightened

volatility in commodity prices. This makes

the stock defensive with strong EPS growth

RISK REWARD CHART visibility for F27 amid an uncertain macro

environment.

Rs5,585.00Rs5,585.00(+111.30%)Rs5,585.00(+111.30%)(+111.30%)

INR

Consensus Rating Distribution

4800 64% Overweight

29% Equal-weight

7% Underweight

3600 Rs3,665.00Rs3,665.00(+38.66%)Rs3,665.00(+38.66%)(+38.66%)

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rs2,643.20Rs2,643.20Rs2,643.20

Risk Reward Themes