Insurance, Securities, Nonbanks: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Expect few surprises overall; key company-specific points

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Insurance, Securities, Nonbanks: Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun): Expect few surprises overall; key company-specific points

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 July 2026

Insurance, Securities, Nonbanks:

Earnings Outlook (Apr-Jun)

Expect few surprises overall; key company-specific

points

We do not expect revisions to full-year guidance or shareholder returns action at Japan Equity Research

1Q FY2026 results. We summarize points to watch for individual stocks below.

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

• Nomura Holdings (8604, Overweight), Daiwa Securities Group (8601, Financials

Neutral): Expecting strong earnings: We expect strong earnings at the two Koki Sato AC

major securities companies given the solid stock market in April–June. We (81-3) 6736-8609

forecast 1Q net profit growth of 7% YoY to ¥111.6 billion for Nomura and 49% koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

YoY to ¥46.7 billion for Daiwa. The difference in profit growth rates stems Yuka Azami

(81-3) 6736-8619

from the high YoY comps at Nomura from gains on real estate sales recorded yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

in 1Q FY2025 versus low YoY comps at Daiwa due mainly to poor interest rate JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

business performance in the global markets division. We view core trends as

strong at both, but if Nomura’s performance temporarily worsens because of

the headline difference in profit growth rates, we think this would provide an

entry opportunity.

• Japan Post Insurance (7181, Overweight): Looking for signs of full-scale

recovery in new policy results: We forecast 1Q adjusted profit growth of 7%

YoY to ¥37.4 billion, 24% of full-year guidance, but see ample room for upside

in interest/dividend income from alternative investments and in gains (losses)

on investment trust cancelations.