Swatch Group: H1 26 results preview and fine-tuning of estimates

研报英文原文证据摘录

Swatch Group: H1 26 results preview and fine-tuning of estimates

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

07 July 2026

Swatch Group Underweight

UHR.S, UHR SW

H1 26 results preview and fine-tuning of estimates Price (06 Jul 26):CHF196.60

▲Price Target (Dec-27):CHF130.00

Prior (Dec-27):CHF125.00

Ahead of Swatch H1 26 results (last year it was on 17th July; the calendar on

Swatch website says ‘End of July’), we update our forecasts to reflect the data from European Luxury & Sporting Goods

Swiss Watch Exports YTD, the latest industry trends and updated forex moves. In Chiara Battistini AC

all we raised our EBIT forecasts by 2-3%, mainly reflecting the recent FX (39-02) 8895-2700

tailwinds; these changes lead to a new Dec-27 price target at CHF130 (from chiara.x.battistini@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc/ J.P. Morgan Securities

previously CHF125). (Asia Pacific) Limited

Wendy Liu

For H1 26, we model sales growth improving slightly vs H2 25 trends (at +4% (44-20) 3493-9733

ex-FX), to +5% ex-FX, and +1% reported CHF3,080m, thanks to growing support wendy.liu@jpmorgan.com

to the watches category from wealth effect in the US and some of the Asian J.P. Morgan Securities plc

markets, vs still lackluster, albeit stabilising, trends in Greater China and the Apurva Vishwaraj

negative impact from the Middle East disruption. The return to MSD% growth apurva.vishwaraj@jpmchase.com

should also lead to EBIT margin recovery: we model Group EBIT margin +240bps J.P. Morgan Securities plc

to 4.7%, or EBIT at CHF143m (+110% yoy but still -30% vs H1 24). Our estimate Victoria Saden

is broadly in line with recent Bloomberg consensus (at CHF148m) and hence we (44-20) 3493-0435

victoria.saden@jpmorgan.com

do not see particular downside risk into the upcoming reporting. Still, our FY26 J.P.