Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

Update

July 7, 2026 10:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MGAIL (India) | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6719

What’s Changed

GAIL (India) (GAIL.NS) From To

Price Target Rs150.00 Rs152.00

Base Case Rs150.00 Rs152.00

GAIL (India) (GAIL.NS, GAIL IS)

Updated Components

EPS India Oil & Gas | India

Investment Thesis Stock Rating Equal-weight

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Industry View In-Line

Price target Rs152.00

Shr price, close (Jul 6, 2026) Rs175.03

Risk Reward for GAIL (India) (GAIL.NS) has been updated 52-Week Range Rs195.45-134.36

Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Reason for change

EPS (Rs)** 11.53 14.81 17.29 18.43

Prior EPS (Rs)** 16.27 16.56 17.37 -

We update our estimates to reflect the latest annual filings, Brent and gas price

assumptions, pricing trends and management commentary. We maintain our Unlessframeworkotherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

transmission volume estimates, with volumes expected to grow at a 2% CAGR over **e ==MorganBased onStanleyconsensusResearchmethodologyestimates

F26–29 to 131mmscmd by F29e. We lower LPG realizations and raise chemical

realizations to reflect recent pricing trends, while reducing depreciation to reflect

the increase in lives of the transmission and petrochemical assets, in line with

management guidance. Overall, this results in EPS revisions of -10.0% and -0.5% for

F27e and F28e, respectively. We also introduce F29 estimates. Given the sensitivity

of Indian gas demand to LNG prices, we maintain our Equal-weight rating as we

expect LNG prices to remain elevated in F27e.

Accordingly, we revise our base-case valuation and price target to Rs152/share (from

Rs150/share).