JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: ITV LN note, ORA FP note: EMEA Special Situations Specialist Commentary Merger/Arbitrage • Pre-Announced • Spin-off Event Driven

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: ITV LN note, ORA FP note: EMEA Special Situations Specialist Commentary Merger/Arbitrage • Pre-Announced • Spin-off Event Driven

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

07 July 2026

£1.05bn. This would imply c£700m, or c19p of studio upside in the event of a takeover (and 4p or 5% of further

upside should it max out on its advertising earn out).

• Orange - Sell-off opening up an attractive re-entry point. Reviewing the catalysts ahead - Akhil Dattani here

• Orange shares are -17% from their mid-May record highs. Contributing factors include growing satellite disruption fears

(sector -11%), and profit taking following the 7th June confirmation of a French consolidation deal with SFR. With this

sell-off coming against the backdrop of an impressive >100% rally over the prior 18 months, we believe it will tempt those

investors who sat on the sidelines to revisit the name. Catalysts ahead include: (1) Upgrades. We expect robust Q2

results underpinned by ongoing DD A&ME growth, as well as modest trend improvements across both France and Spain.

This, twinned with the MasOrange deal close, should afford both organic and inorganic guidance upgrades; (2) Merger

progress. The coming weeks should provide clarity over whether France or the EC will have lead jurisdiction over the

SFR deal. We suspect a French review would be most welcomed. Cost synergies alone support HSD EFCF accretion; (3)

Satellite risks. We concede this thematic overhang (which we will explore in detail over subsequent research) is likely to

persist near-term. That said, we feel associated tail risks are already heavily over-discounted; (4) Valuation. On 2028E

estimates, even pre synergies, or potential market repair, Orange trades on just 10x PE and a 12% EFCF yield.