Digging GLP-1 Economics; Unit Profitability Down, Volume Up, Gross Profit Intact

研报英文原文证据摘录

Digging GLP-1 Economics; Unit Profitability Down, Volume Up, Gross Profit Intact

Global Research

6 July 2026ab

RD Saúde Equities

BrazilDigging GLP-1 Economics; Unit Profitability

Down, Volume Up, Gross Profit Intact Retailers, Drug-Based

12-month rating Buy

12m price target R$26.00Analysing key market concerns around GLP-1 economics and competition

Prior : R$30.00

We believe the market may have become overly pessimistic regarding pharmacies’

exposure to GLP-1s and the long-term opportunity for the category in Brazil. Price (03 Jul 2026) R$17.07

Current concerns appear centered around: i) lower-than-expected volume RIC: RADL3.SA BBG: RADL3 BZ

potential, with part of demand migrating to the informal market; ii) average ticket

and gross profit per unit erosion following the introduction of branded generics Trading data and key metrics

after the Semaglutide patent cliff; iii) normalization of market share by leading 52-wk range R$27.00-13.36

chains as product availability broadens across the market; and iv) eventual Market cap. R$29.2b/US$5.66b

eCommerce competition, following Novo Nordisk's launch of its official store on Shares o/s 1,713m (COM)

MELI in Mexico. We believe market concerns around pharmacies and the GLP-1 Free float 72%

opportunity have become excessive. In this report, we assess Mounjaro and Avg. daily volume ('000) 10,829

Semaglutide volumes, pricing, gross profit per unit, and market share dynamics, Avg. daily value (m) R$212.2

evaluating the potential implications for RADL's earnings outlook, as we revisit our Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$8.64b

GLP-1 model and incorporate recent channel checks to frame how the GLP-1 P/BV (12/26E) 3.5x

opportunity may evolve over the mid-term. Overall, we expect volume pick-up to Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.8x