Global Oil and Gas: HORMUZ OIL & GAS FLOWS

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Global Oil and Gas: HORMUZ OIL & GAS FLOWS

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: days 126-128

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

OPEC+ output increase, Saudi OSP cuts Analyst

Although several vessels reportedly made unexplained U-turns over the weekend, traffic henri.patricot@ubs.com

through Hormuz has remained fairly steady. As transit activity continues to normalise, +33-14-888 3033

the market’s attention is turning to how Gulf producers will adjust pricing and supply Nayoung Kim

strategy in response to rising output. The group has agreed to increase production by Analyst

another 188kb/d in August (link), in line with previous months and expectations we nayoung.kim@ubs.com

believe. Saudi Aramco cut its Asian OSP sharply: by $11/bbl for Arab Light to a rare +44-20-7568 4010

$1.50/bbl discount versus the benchmark (link). This likely reflects at least partially the Joshua Stone

higher shipping costs. Analyst

joshua.stone@ubs.com

A small decline in inbound tankers +44-20-7901 5588

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) point to a modest decline in Gulf Josh Silverstein

flows, led by softer inbound traffic. Oil and gas tanker crossings averaged 13 over the Analyst

weekend, down from 14 last Thursday, but remained skewed toward inbound josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

movements, with 8 tankers entering the Gulf, including 4 crude tankers (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf).

Average crossings are double the June average of 7, but still well below February’s c.50 Tom Allen

crossings. Volumes averaged 4.9Mboe/d over the weekend, compared with the June Analyst