Fast Take Aegon

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fast Take Aegon

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -8.1%

Forecast dividend yield 5.4%

Forecast stock return -2.7%

Market return assumption 7.5%

Forecast excess return -10.3%

Company Description

Aegon provides life insurance, pensions and asset management services with roots dating

back more than 175 years. It operates in more than 20 countries, including the United States,

where it is known as Transamerica, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Asia, and Southern and

Eastern Europe. Aegon's head office is in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Aegon: Our valuation for Aegon is derived through a sum-of-the-parts valuation by division

using a DCF of capital generation. Key risks to our valuation for Aegon are: (1) continued

lower-for-longer interest rate environment, (2) a sharp reduction in equity markets, (3) a

deterioration or default of its fixed-income portfolio (including sovereigns), (4) increased

competition in its key markets, (5) regulatory risk in its key markets: in particular the US.

Unum: We use a sum-of-the-parts methodology to value the company using P/E multiples

applied to forward EPS expectations of each segment. We assign nominal value to the Closed

Block segment. Risks: Risks to our price target and rating include: 1) sustained low long-term

interest rates can pressure investment income and reduce the present value of future cash

flows assumed in reserves (particularly within the Closed Block) which can lead to additional

reserve charges in the future; 2) the markets in which the company operates are very

competitive and its market share can be subject to volatility as a result; and 3) the company's

business mix makes it sensitive to macroeconomic conditions including employment rates

and wage growth in the U.S.