Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, freight and Hormuz updates (week 27)

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Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, freight and Hormuz updates (week 27)

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Shipping supply chain weekly: trade flows, China

freight and Hormuz updates (week 27) Industrial

Robin Xu

Analyst

bin.xu@ubs.com

Key highlights from high-frequency data +86-21-3866 8872

We compile weekly data from UBS Evidence Lab, the Ministry of Transport and other Zed Sheng

third-party data providers to track the latest trade flows across shipping, shipbuilding Analyst

and ports. S1460525030003

zed.sheng@ubs.com

Hormuz reopen supports recovery of VLCC average earnings +86-21-3866 8730

Vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz has stabilized after last week’s post–US-Iran Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

deal surge, averaging 44 transits per day over the past week, well above the March–May Analyst

average of around 10 per day. Uncertainty remains elevated as discussions continue over cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4375the Strait’s future governance and the potential introduction of transit tolls. Our

Maritime Trade Disruption Monitor (> Access Dataset) indicated a notable increase in the William Deng

oil tankers departing eastbound from Hormuz as well as attempts of entering Economist

westbound into the the Gulf last week. VLCC average earnings from Middle East/West william-w.deng@ubs.com

+852-2971 6765Africa to China fell back last week with more VLCC heading to Persian Gulf, with Middle

East/US Gulf/West Africa-China VLCC TCE +103%/+5%/-22% vs. pre-conflict level. Xin Chen

Container shipping volume keeps rising S1460511050002

xin.chen@ubs.com

Container throughput at key ports in China decreased 5% WoW while remained 5% +86-21-3866 8864

YoY last week.