Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Avient Corporation (AVNT.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

30 Jul 2026 - 03

Sales growth (yoy %) (%) 0.6 3.6 3.0 2.8 Q2 2026 Avient Corp Earnings Release

Aug 2026

03 Nov 2026 -

Op. Income margin (%) (%) 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.3 Q3 2026 Avient Corp Earnings Release

09 Nov 2026

Total Adj. EBITDA ($, mm) 545 571 597 636

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Avient has improved the quality of its business mix RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

through M&A. Focus in secular growth areas drives sales 3.05

outperformance EPS

3.00 3.14

Productivity and price/cost drive faster margin ($)

3.08

Questions remain on inflection to growth in 2026 expansion

and durability of secular drivers Accretive M&A / buybacks initiated @ <2.5x net

lvg. target 570

EBITDA

Macro recovery in Europe/China 565 583

($, mm)

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 574

Price vs. raws has been solid and a key driver of

profits and margins Recession. Consumer weakness / stagnant

macro Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Pricing reverts with deflation and mix Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Secular growth from defense, healthcare

0-10% Latin America decelerates

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Leverage remains elevated longer 10-20% China and India

30-40% Europe ex UK OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

40-50% North America

Inst. Owners, % Active 53.7%

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

1/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market