Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (CWY.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Solid waste services net revenue 5.95 6.20 6.46 6.44 H2 2026 NSW Government plastic legislation

growth (%)

01 Jul 2026 - 31 Solid waste services EBITDA margin Vic WFH legislation (applies from 1 Sep) 28.09 28.67 29.10 29.42 Jul 2026 (%)

Full Year 2026 Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd Earnings Liquid waste and health services 20 Aug 2026 13.37 2.40 7.32 4.94 Release EBITDA growth (%)

Industrial waste services EBITDA 22 Oct 2026 2026 Annual General Meeting

(0.75) 79.98 36.27 9.47

growth (%) 01 Dec 2026 -

Bromelton Waste-to-Energy decision

Total capex (A$, mn) 296.6 409.3 413.9 417.2 28 Feb 2027

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Market and market share growth in waste RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

collection volume Increased regulatory incentives for resource 898 Regulation and project execution in post- recovery/reprocessing EBITDA

collection Government and corporate sustainability (A$, mn) 866 908

Bond yields, influencing investor discount rates initiatives 893

for defensive stocks Economic activity driving industrial and

hazardous waste production 470

EBIT

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (A$, mn) 460 475

Resurgent incumbent or new entrant taking

0-10% MEA market share or competing margins down

0.10 recovery in C&I waste, or material APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Slow 90- EPS 100% China and India 0.10 0.11 reduction in municipal waste per capita (A$)

Safety, environmental, and governance risk 0.10

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0.07

DPS

0.05 0.07

Inst.