JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / DISCO / TSMC: APAC Technology - Specialist Sales Commentary Hardware - Semiconductors

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / DISCO / TSMC: APAC Technology - Specialist Sales Commentary Hardware - Semiconductors

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

07 July 2026

JPM | APAC Technology - SEC / DISCO / TSMC

Duncan Wagner

+852 2800 8874

duncan.wagner@jpmorgan.com

SEC: 2Q prelim OP W89.4trn which was below recent press reports W100trn which Jay believes expectations were driven by

domestic institutional funds, as we expected W75-85trn given the employee bonus expenses vs our JPMe print W91.5trn. Initial

investor marketing feedback w/ Jay has elicited many questions on memory and positioning, as SEC 10-day volatility recently

reached 128, forcing investors to cut position sizes to meet VAR (Value At Risk) thresholds. Many investor questions also

surrounded the elevated retail ETF positioning, leverage, and volatility traders whom are increasingly larger players in the names,

and less focused on underlying fundamental factors than traditional investors. This excess positioning is outweighing low offshore

institutional ownership (now 46%) on SEC as a factor for today’s underperformance. Kioxia was brought up in many meetings, as

there is broad agreement that NAND benefits from increased KV Cache offloading, plus index inclusion upweighting. However,

near-term performance is offset by high positioning among offshore and onshore investors, including retail, as it is by far the most

actively traded name, w/ retail leverage employed. Recent Kioxia 10-day volatility spiked to 158, which has caused a similar risk

reduction exercise as SEC. Peaking memory prices, w/ a greater number of LTAs signed, rising memory as a % of capex, plus

past history of contracts not honored remain key fundamental debate topics among investors. SPEs, specifically TEL/SCREEN