Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 6

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE US$28.00 BASE CASE US$23.00 BEAR CASE US$6.50

Implies 1.6x 2026E P/S Implies 1.4x 2026E P/S Implies 0.45x 2026E P/S

Faster-than-expected volume recovery of L L series upgrade to lead volume/margin Weaker-than-expected L series sales

series, followed by the introduction of new recovery from 2027: 1) L series sales recover recovery: 1) The company needs to

models: 1) Effective execution of marketing following its major upgrade in 2026; 2) accelerate the model introduction plan,

strategy targeting family consumers to help further sales contribution from the I series which could raise capital requirements,

a rapid recovery of L family sales; 2) gross and Mega in 2026-27; 3) steady gross margin particularly amid lower-than-expected sales;

margin expansion helped by improving recovery from scale benefits and overseas 2) new model introductions behind

scalability; 3) meaningful progress on sales in 2027-28; 4) on-track autonomous schedule; 3) autonomous driving

autonomous driving development that leads driving development targeting L4 by 2026- development lagging peers.

to higher visibility on future revenue 27.

contribution and long-term growth

potential.