GAP Airports | Latin America June Traffic: -5.1% Y/Y; Weakness Remains — 2Q26 Traffic Below Expectations

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GAP Airports | Latin America June Traffic: -5.1% Y/Y; Weakness Remains — 2Q26 Traffic Below Expectations

Idea

July 6, 2026 11:14 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+MGAP Airports | Latin America Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

June Traffic: -5.1% Y/Y; Jens.Spiess@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +52 55 5282-6614

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research AssociateWeakness Remains — 2Q26 Joao.Pedro.Franco.Dos.Santos@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9524

Gustavo Soares

Research AssociateTraffic Below Expectations

Gustavo.Soares@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6075

GAP Airports (PAC.N, PAC US)

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure | Mexico

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target US$220.00

Shr price, close (Jul 6, 2026) US$254.42

Mkt cap, curr (mm) M$224,389

52-Week Range US$300.41-206.91

GAP's total traffic decreased 5.1% Y/Y in June. International and domestic traffic

declined 9.1% and 1.9% Y/Y respectively. Traffic in Guadalajara increased 6.0% Y/Y,

while traffic in Tijuana was down 4.6% Y/Y. In Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta traffic

decreased 9.7% and 18.7% Y/Y, respectively. Traffic in Jamaican Airports was down

17.6% Y/Y.

Seat capacity in June decreased 4.9% Y/Y (in line with our tracker, see here),

resulting in a load factor of 82.0% — down 20bps Y/Y and 210bps M/M.

2Q26 traffic came in at -5.6% Y/Y, well below consensus of -2.8% and slightly below

MSe of -5.0%.

Impact to our view: Traffic and capacity declined for the sixth consecutive month,

with the latter coming in line with our tracker. While capacity growth is set to inflect

to positive territory in July (+1% Y/Y), we remain UW as valuation premium vs. peers

seems stretched given the lackluster traffic prospects in 2H26.

Exhibit 1: Monthly traffic comparison