Memory – Changing Tides

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Memory – Changing Tides

Idea

July 6, 2026 07:34 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MTech Bytes | Asia Pacific Shawn Kim

Equity Analyst

Memory – Changing Tides Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.comCindy Huang +44 20 7677-1018

Cindy.Huang@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2915

We address our most debated memory topics with investors: (1) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

When the biggest spender of AI reportedly has compute to sell, Duan Liu

does the story begin to change? (2) Why are stocks not re-rating EquityDuan.Liu@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2239-7357

post LTAs? (3) Peak rate of change vs an extended memory Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+

cycle. Ryan Kim

Peaking rate of change ... Memory is still a cyclical industry – although different Ryan.G.Kim@morganstanley.com +82 2 399-4939

this time – and is approaching peak rate of change in (1) pricing YoY, (2) inventory,

(3) the earnings revision breadth. This can reach a point where the market begins to

go sideways and is also a reason why memory can take a break here. We have had

three cyclical corrections in the memory space since Generative AI (Nov 2022), and

would view corrections in the context of a structural bull market for AI capex.

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Asia Pacific

… but not the end of the cycle. The market moves on either less good or less bad Industry View Attractive

news. Selling excess AI compute is the new debate, with “chipflation” potentially

pushing hyperscalers out of the frontier AI race versus the our bullish view on

monetizing the AI stack and AI demand/token penetration that is still in place.

Volatility in the most crowded area of the market. Some investors are unwinding

positions as recent volatility in memory is making historically high exposure levels in