TSMC: 2Q26 preview: Stronger GMs and aggressive capacity plans to match rising AI demand; Raise PT to NT$3100

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TSMC: 2Q26 preview: Stronger GMs and aggressive capacity plans to match rising AI demand; Raise PT to NT$3100

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

07 July 2026

TSMC Overweight

2330.TW, 2330 TT

2Q26 preview: Stronger GMs and aggressive capacity Price (06 Jul 26):NT$2460.0

plans to match rising AI demand; Raise PT to NT$3100 ▲Price Target (Jun-27):NT$3100.0 Prior (Dec-26):NT$2500.0

Ahead of TSMC’s 2Q26 earnings conference, we are raising our FY26/27/28E

EPS estimates by 5%/10%/16% and raising our Jun-27 PT to NT$3100 (20x 12m Technology and Telecoms

forward earnings), to reflect stronger near-term profitability, better visibility on AI Gokul Hariharan AC

demand, stronger capacity build and firmer pricing into 2028. TSMC’s stock has (852) 2800-8564

lagged the TWSE index by 8% in the last three months due to (1) increased gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

concerns on market share losses in leading edge, (2) concerns on TSMC being too Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

conservative on capacity expansion, and (3) more attractive price increase Jennifer Hsieh

narratives in higher beta parts of the supply chain such as tier-2 foundries, wafers, (886-2) 2725-9868

MLCC etc. On the upcoming earnings conference call, we expect TSMC to push jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com

back strongly against market share loss and show clear intent to expand capacity J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

meaningfully in 2027-29. In addition, near-term GMs are also likely to remain David Chou

strong, nudging 70% levels. We also expect broader price hikes in 2027, given the (886-2) 2725-9618

david.chou@jpmorgan.com

widening supply-demand gap, and a stronger Datacenter AI CAGR (we now J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited