Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc | North America Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc | North America Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc (GLPI.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

KEI - FFO Growth (Row 98) (%) 2.4 6.8 2.9 3.8

KEI - Dividend Payout Ratio (Row

79.8 78.9 77.0 74.1

105) (%)

KEI - SS NOI Growth (Row 175) (%) 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Regional casino markets' performance RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Long term, a more aggressive acquisition US casino markets continue to perform well,

strategy headwinds from inflation pressure remain FFO per 4.12

Material improvement in OH casino revenues limited share 4.08 4.16

Cycle test of Gaming REIT model GLPI transacts at accretive transaction ($) 4.10

Traditional Triple Nets acquiring gaming real multiples

estate

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 1,636

EBITDA

Casinos' performance meaningfully deteriorates 1,578 1,666GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE ($, mm)

High tenant concentration with a lack of 1,616

alternative use for gaming assets pressure

multiple Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

100% North America GLPI transacts at dilutive transaction multiples

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

or can't find deals

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 51.7%

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.9%

1/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund BEST Horizon MOST Horizon

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends.