Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Net Interest Margin (%) 3.80 3.95 4.02 4.07 21 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Earnings Release

Average Loan Growth (%) 42.1 12.9 4.7 4.7 21 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Earnings Call

Efficiency Ratio (%) 49.7 48.0 46.9 46.2

NCO Ratio (%) 0.17 0.09 0.13 0.10

ROTCE (%) 16.7 16.9 17.6 19.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Loan growth: Commercial & Industrial and CRE. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Net interest margin: Deposit betas, fixed asset Better industry-wide demand/share gains drive 4.28 repricing, floating rate loans/securities, cash, and higher loan growth. EPS

purchase accounting accretion: Steeper yield curve and higher deposit betas ($) 3.80 4.31

Net loan charge offs. drive better NIM. 4.05

Loan losses remain near current levels.

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Weaker industry-wide demand drives slower

loan growth.

The belly of the yield curve inverts further

100% North America and/or deposit betas surprise negatively.

A weaker economy and reduced federal

government spending drive higher loan losses.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 46%

MS ALPHA MODELS

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

5/5 24 Month 4/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be