JPM | Long OCI: Cash Floor with Upside Optionality from the Share Offer

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | Long OCI: Cash Floor with Upside Optionality from the Share Offer

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

06 July 2026

Zara Patel

+44 207 134 6029

zara.patel@jpmorgan.com

I would be long OCI NA. OCI is effectively a call on the Orascom share price, with a cash floor due to the offer from

NNS.OCI is trading at €4.06, which is 1% below the €4.10 cash offer from NNS, but 19% below the share offer from

Orascom worth €4.85 adjusted for Dutch WHT. The OCI share price does not reflect the marginal buyer who is able to

own both OCI and Orascom shares. This upside may not be priced in till later in the deal timeline (I estimate early Q4

closing). However, due to the low liquidity in OCI, I’d start buying now. Any feedback/ pushback welcome. Please let me

know if you want to discuss further with our OCI analyst Angelina Glazova, our industrials spec Sam Edmunds or special sits.

Angelina’s note following the €4.10 proposal is here.

1) Further upside from ORAS UH share price - If the Orascom share price continues to rally into deal closing as investors

get excited about the pro-forma. Orascom can invest OCI’s significant cash balance in infrastructure projects. Further upside

may be limited, given that since the OCI-Orascom deal was announced on 9/12/25, ORAS UH is +41%.Whilst not all

minority OCI shareholders can own ADX listed shares, we know there are some who can because the Court-

appointed Directors said last week here“A number of OCI’s minority shareholders have recently indicated that, for that

reason, they are in favour of the OCI-Orascom transaction”. Given the value difference between the cash and share offers,

at some point I’d expect either certain OCI minority investors and/or certain Orascom shareholders to buy OCI (those who

can hold both shares)