French Banks: Life Inflows - Early Signs of a Slowdown in May?

研报英文原文证据摘录

French Banks: Life Inflows - Early Signs of a Slowdown in May?

inflows at +€4.0bn (vs +€5.2bn in April), with both inflows

in Unit-linked funds (+€2.8bn) & in Euro funds (€+1.2bn) (Exhibits 3-4). The industry continues to

benefit from the positive momentum throughout 2025 (c.€51bn). YTD inflows are €28.7bn, €7.3bn

higher than the same period in 2025.

Which banks are most exposed?

CASA is the most geared to insurance among French banks, with c.11% of its 2025 revenues from

this activity, followed by BNP (5%) & SocGen (3%). With strong April & May data, it bodes well for the

life insurance units of these banks in Q2-26. Indeed, as most of the fees are related to outstanding

balances, we expect the insurance units of these three banks to continue to deliver strong revenue

performance. Note that in France, Life outstandings reached €2,162bn end-April, up c.+5.7% YoY.

This positive momentum should continue in H1-26.

Following the 20bp Livret A rate cut in February to 1.5%, inflows into regulated savings products

remain under pressure in H1-26, to the benefit of alternatives such as life insurance. In May, the

three main regulated schemes (Livret A, LDDS, and LEP) recorded net outflows of -€0.8bn (vs -

€1.9bn in April), with outstandings now at €693.1bn, +0.7% YoY (vs +5.3% in May '25) - Fifth month

of regulated savings outflows.

That said, while May data confirm a further deceleration in regulated savings balances, the Iran

conflict has altered the outlook. A renewed inflation shock and the recent ECB hike stance will Joseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst

mechanically lift the Livret A rate in August, pressuring bank margins and potentially reviving inflows 44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.com

as households reallocate toward regulated savings.