MENA Diversified Banks: 2Q26 Results – What to Expect and Stocks to Watch

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MENA Diversified Banks: 2Q26 Results – What to Expect and Stocks to Watch

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06 Jul 2026 00:21:37 ET │ 18 pages

MENA Diversified Banks

2Q26 Results – What to Expect and Stocks to Watch

CITI'S TAKE

Rahul Bajaj, CFA AC

We expect 2Q26 results impacted in different ways by the US-Iran conflict +971-46044894

- with YoY/QoQ profits both down 60-65% of our coverage MENA banks. rahul.bajaj@citi.com

While COMI, ADCB and Rajhi should lead on YoY % earnings growth, we

expect relatively muted set of bottom-line growth numbers from NBK, CBQ Nitesh Agarwal

& DIB. Key expected trends: (i) QoQ Revenues mixed amidst CoF pressures +91-22-4277-5161

& mixed non-II; (ii) Credit costs slightly higher QoQ but still benign given the nitesh.agarwal@citi.com

conflict backdrop; and (iii) Positive QoQ Loan momentum in Egypt & the

UAE. We believe investor focus would be more on any changes to the 2026

guidance. Please refer to Figure 1-3 for our 2Q26 expectations. Refer to Pg.2

for 2Q26 read across from the recent Central Bank data.

Weak NIMs – We expect marginal NIM pressure in 2Q – due to the conflict led higher

CoF across the space. Overall, c.80% of the 15 banks under our MENA coverage

could report sequentially lower NIMs during 2Q26 (most down single digit bps QoQ).

At the same time, we expect conflict impact and regulatory changes to impact non-

II for several banks (e.g. via lower cards related FX fee, muted trade linked revenue,

depressed capital markets business, and pressure on brokerage revenues etc.).

Overall, we see non-II up QoQ for only 40% of our coverage banks (YoY higher for

47% of banks). Overall, we expect mixed QoQ revenue growth – up for 8 of the 15

banks under coverage.

OpEx and CoR Higher QoQ for Most banks – We expect 9/15 banks we cover to

report higher OpEx QoQ.