APAC Economic Perspectives: Asia by the Numbers (July 2026)

研报英文原文证据摘录

APAC Economic Perspectives: Asia by the Numbers (July 2026)

Economist

commodity prices and, in China’s case, auto exports. Vietnam’s widening trade deficit S1460516050002

appears to reflect higher energy costs and FDI-related capex imports, rather than a jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

weakening in demand, and we have upgraded our forecasts for Vietnam on the back of +86-105-832 8324

public infrastructure investment. On the back of stronger-than-expected electronics Claire Long

exports, less energy-related disruptions dragging on the chemicals sector, we also Economist

upgrade Singapore's 2026 growth forecast from 3.5% to 4.1% in this note. claire.long@ubs.com

+65 6495 7426

Strait of Hormuz: tail risks reduced, baseline largely unchanged, USD still strong Grace Wang

The US–Iran memorandum ensuring 60 days of safe passage through the Strait of Economist

S1460524050003Hormuz has reduced geopolitical and energy supply risks. Most of Asia did not

grace-zc.wang@ubs.com

experience meaningful physical disruptions, and policy measures had already contained +86-105-832 8335

the pass-through of energy prices to inflation across several economies.As such, this

represents more of a reduction in downside risks, with lower imported oil prices easing Stephen Wu

Economistcurrent account pressures—particularly for India and the Philippines—and reducing

stephen.wu@ubs.com

subsidy burdens in economies such as Malaysia and Indonesia. While this should support +61-2-9324 2283

currencies in principle, the effect is likely to be muted given a strong US dollar amid

expectations of a more hawkish Fed and uneven capital flows.

Different central banks at different points in the cycle

Inflation surprised on the downside in May as lower oil prices fed quickly into transport