First Read: Bank Negara Indonesia

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Bank Negara Indonesia

12/27E 552 623

Loan growth outlook, capital management 12/28E 710 686

In wholesale, BNI’s pipeline remains healthy, with scope to improve pricing versus 18

Joshua Tanja, CFA

months ago while asset quality remains sound. Through May, corporate loans rose 20%

Analyst

YoY excluding Agrinas, driven equally by 20% YoY growth in working capital and joshua.tanja@ubs.com

investment loans. Consumer remains challenging, with weak demand and asset quality, +62-21-2554 7030

prompting a cautious stance. SME growth is off a low base, but macro conditions remain

Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

difficult. BNI targets a minimum tier 1 ratio of at least 17%. It expects some relief as

Agrinas loans, representing 4% of total loans, still carry a 50% risk weight. The bank ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

also anticipates a lower payout policy over the medium to long term. Under the new +62-21-2554 7037

government export revenue repatriation policy, BNI reported 15-20% growth in DHE/FX

deposits, showing improved momentum versus 2025. For Gunbuster exposure,

equivalent to 3% of loans, BNI currently holds 6% coverage and plans to increase this to

10% following the company’s Chapter 11 filing, reflecting company-specific issues and

a weaker sector backdrop.

Valuation: We have a PT of Rp3,200 and a Sell rating

We value BNI using a Gordon growth model, assuming a 7% risk-free rate (unchanged),

5.75% equity risk premium (unchanged), cut-off valuation at March 2027 (unchanged),

12% sustainable ROE (unchanged), and 8% sustainable growth (unchanged). At our

price target, it would trade at 0.6x/5.5x 2027E PB/PE.

Highlights (Rpb) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 62,747 64,515 64,976 69,991 76,336 81,897 89,275 97,799