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Domino‘s Pizza Inc: Valuation Not a Catalyst But Share Gains May Be
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Domino‘s Pizza Inc: Valuation Not a Catalyst But Share Gains May Be
Domino's Pizza Inc UBS Research
Still positioned for market share gains
Despite recent pressure on US sales trends and DPZ shares, we see upside potential for We utilized a UBS Evidence Lab
shares as US sss should improve over time supported by initiatives to drive traffic and survey of ~1.6K QSR customers to
brand positioning which should enable category share gains. Additionally, we expect help assess key DPZ brand
global net unit expansion should accelerate over the coming years. While we anticipate perceptions, recent pressures, and
2Q US sss could be negative given macro headwinds and competitive pressures, and 2H drivers to improve visit frequency.
trends could be challenged as a result of difficult comparisons, we believe DPZ maintains
longer-term sales drivers to sustain market share gains and support continued growth in
franchisee cash flows. Above-peer domestic sss performance and faster global unit
growth should drive upside for shares over time from the current multiyear valuation
lows (15x NTM EPS vs ~26x 5y avg). Results from our latest QSR survey indicate
Domino's should continue to benefit from solid consumer engagement, supported by
favorable value perceptions and still positive visit intent.
Figure 1: Domino's sss should continue to outperform the Figure 2: ...with global net unit growth set to accelerate
US pizza category and larger chain competitors… over the coming years.
ompetitors… ate over the coming years.
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Source: Company reports, Consensus Metrix Source: Company reports, UBS estimates
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