What‘s Brewing in Brazil: In June, Weather Still Unfavorable; In May, Beer Production Down 4.2% y/y;

研报英文原文证据摘录

What‘s Brewing in Brazil: In June, Weather Still Unfavorable; In May, Beer Production Down 4.2% y/y;

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

03 July 2026

What’s Brewing in Brazil

In June, Weather Still Unfavorable; In May, Beer

Production Down 4.2% y/y;

• Alcoholic Beverage Industrial Production was down 4.2% y/y in May in LatAm Food & Beverages and

Brazil, deepening the decline recorded in April (-3.2% y/y) and contributing Agribusiness

negatively to the YTD production change of 1.5% y/y. We also note that Lucas Ferreira AC

production figures may lag actual sales trends. (55-11) 4950-3629

lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

• In June 2026, temperatures remained below the historical median and Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

2025 levels across the total and non-working days, with São Paulo Larissa Perez

experiencing an average temperature of 16.4°C, the lowest since 2016. (55-11) 4950-6400

Furthermore, precipitation reached the 15 year max during the month, but this larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

effect may be smoothed for beer consumption, as precipitation was near zero Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

during non-working days. Froylan Mendez

• Our trackers point to a 5% COGS increase y/y in 2Q27 and 3Q27 (revised (52-55)froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com5540-9482

upwards by 100bps since last month). We believe investors remain focused J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

on marginal developments, particularly the increases in aluminum (up 15.1% Morgan Grupo Financiero

in USD y/y). For the short-term, Ambev’s Bz Beer avg COGS per hectoliter in

BRL could rise by 5% in 2Q26, 2% y/y in 3Q26 and decrease 1% in 4Q26,

within the company´s guidance band and mgmt commentaries that costs

should be heavier into 1H26 vesus 2H.

• The World Cup’s uplift could be partially offset by weaker weather.