Soft 2026 Expected; Recovery Likely in 2H26 on Initiatives and Easier Comp

研报英文原文证据摘录

Soft 2026 Expected; Recovery Likely in 2H26 on Initiatives and Easier Comp

China (PRC) | Consumer Staples

Uni-President China EquityJulyResearch3, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGESoft 2Q26 Expected; Recovery Likely in 2H26

RATING BUYon Initiatives and Easier Comp

PRICE HK$7.01^

We expect UPC to report 1H26 NP of RMB1.37bn (+7% YoY) on revenue

of RMB17.5bn (+2.4% YoY). 2Q26 NP would be down 7% on LSD decline PRICE TARGET | % TO PT HK$9.50 | +36%

in sales. A soft 2Q26 was anticipated given a high base, with pressure 52W HIGH-LOW HK$10.16 - HK$6.63

on beverages from competition, channel rollout and unfavorable weather, FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 27.1% | 11.78

partly offset by resilient noodles. Looking ahead, mgmt expects a stronger MARKET CAP HK$30.3B | $3.9B

2H26 supported by easier comp, new channels and product launches. We TICKER 220 HK ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

maintain Buy with an unchanged PT of HK$9.50. noted.

We expect UPC to report 1H26 NP of RMB1.37bn, up 7% YoY, supported by a 2.4% increase FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in revenue to RMB17.5bn. Ex the RMB73m one-off gain from the disposal of Andre Juice 2026 2027 2026 2027

recorded in 1Q26, we estimate core NP growth of ~1% YoY in 1H26. For 2Q26 alone, we REV NM NM NM NM

forecast net profit to decline 7% YoY to RMB635m, on a low-single-digit decline in sales.

EPS +3% NA -1% -1%

A challenging 2Q26 is largely anticipated. The weak 2Q26 sales performance should not

come as a surprise. During the Chengdu Investor Day in May, mgmt highlighted the quarter 2026 (RMB) 1Half 2Half FY

as particularly challenging given the high comparable base in 2Q25. The noodle business EPS -- -- 0.54

has remained resilient, and we expect L-MSD sales growth with a broadly stable operating PREV 0.52

environment.