Push and pull: France, RN and the challenges of political change - Part 1: The path to power

研报英文原文证据摘录

Push and pull: France, RN and the challenges of political change - Part 1: The path to power

2 July 2026

Focus Europe

Executive summary – Push and pull: France,

RN and the challenges of political change

The possibility of a Rassemblement National (RN) victory in France in 2027

should no longer be considered a tail risk. Current polling suggests that an RN

candidate – whether Marine Le Pen or, if legal developments force a succession,

Jordan Bardella – potentially has a credible path to the second round of the

presidential election and the Élysée Palace itself. More importantly, for investors,

France’s institutional calendar means that a RN presidential victory would likely

be followed by a snap legislative election, creating a realistic pathway to a

parliamentary majority and, thus, meaningful governing power.

However, our central conclusion of this series of three reports is that markets

should focus less on whether RN can win power and more on what it could

actually do with it. In our view, the defining characteristic of any RN

administration would likely be a continuous tension between political ambition

and governing realities. Constitutional constraints, the Senate, EU institutions,

fiscal arithmetic, demographic pressures, and financial markets would all act as

powerful checks on the implementation of the party’s programme. There may be

volatility, but disruption appears more likely than rupture.

RN in power never felt as close. Politically, RN is in a stronger position than at any

point in its history, with recent polls suggesting either of its likely candidates – Le

Pen or Bardella, depending on the outcome of the July 7 court verdict – could win

the presidency against any potential opponent. Crucially, the RN also has a