India Autos: Jun-2026 volumes: Strong demand - MHCVs and Tractors outperform TMCV, AL & Tractors ahead; MSIL, RE and HMCL slightly below

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India Autos: Jun-2026 volumes: Strong demand - MHCVs and Tractors outperform TMCV, AL & Tractors ahead; MSIL, RE and HMCL slightly below

Global Markets Research

3 July 2026India Autos: Jun-2026 volumes

EQUITY: AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

Strong demand - MHCVs and Tractors outperform Research Analysts

India Autos & Auto Parts

TMCV, AL & Tractors ahead; MSIL, RE and HMCL Kapil Singh - NFASL

kapil.singh@nomura.comslightly below

+91 22 403 74199

June-2026 wholesale volumes: PVs +23% y-y (Nomura: +26%), 2Ws +18% y-y Siddhartha Bera, CFA - NFASL

(Nomura: +18%), tractors +14% y-y (Nomura: +7%), MHCVs +24% y-y (Nomura: siddhartha.bera@nomura.com

+12%) +91 22 403 74362

Healthy demand momentum continued across segments in June. MHCVs’ wholesale volumes

were significantly ahead of our expectations, led by easing geopolitical concerns and news of a

likely steep 2.5% price hike from July. (link)

Tractor volumes were also ahead in June, even though concerns remain on the outlook due to El

Nino worries. As on 1 July 2026, monsoon rainfall is ~38% below the normal level.

Consumer interest in EVs remains robust, with EV penetration increasing further to 7.5% for PVs

and 10.6% for 2Ws in Jun-26 (Fig.5). New launches and improving charging infrastructure

continue to support EV adoption. We continue to maintain our view that India’s EV penetration

is at an inflection point (link) and we prefer companies which stand to gain from this trend.

ICE-dominant OEMs which don't have strong EV capabilities face de-rating risk.

Following the easing of geopolitical concerns, commodity prices have moderated across key

metals, improving the cost outlook for OEMs. In our view, input cost pressures have eased to ~2.3%

for PVs and ~3.4% for 2Ws (Jan-26 to July-26); however, we continue to believe that strong