CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Easy Does It

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CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Easy Does It

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July 3, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Georgi Deyanov

Economist

Easy Does It Georgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited +44 20 7425-7006

Andrea Masia

We expect the BOI to reduce its key policy rate by 25bp to EconomistAndrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0820

3.50% next week. In contrast, we see the NBP and the CBE

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

remaining on hold, as pressure to tighten has moderated. Yomna Moheieldin

Hungary and Czech Republic inflation in June likely eased. EconomistYomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

Israel | Easing risks: With weaker inflation data and expectations, we expect the

Recent Research Highlights

BOI to ease its key policy rate by 25bp to 3.50%. We see further rate cuts ahead,

Egypt: CBE Preview: Continue to Hold

with the policy rate reaching 3% by the end of 1Q27. Risks to our forecast are

Israel: BOI Preview: Easing Risks

skewed towards a more front-loaded easing cycle and a lower terminal rate.

Poland: NBP Preview: Regaining Perspective

• We expect the BOI to ease its key policy rate by 25bp to 3.50% on the back South Africa: 3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

of lower-than-expected inflation data, easing inflation expectations and Hungary: NBH Review: Bucking the Hawkish

easing geopolitical uncertainty. We expect the central bank to ease again by Trend

25bp in 4Q26, most likely in November as visibility on the fiscal policy Czech Republic: CNB Review: One Move, Open

outlook may decrease due to uncertainty around the outcome of the Risks

upcoming Knesset elections on October 27. Further ahead, we see the Turkey: CBT Review: A Refined Balance