Guardant (GH): ‘Shield of Dreams‘ - If UNH covers it, they will screen

研报英文原文证据摘录

Guardant (GH): ‘Shield of Dreams‘ - If UNH covers it, they will screen

Eve Burstein +1 917 344 8313 eve.burstein@bernsteinsg.com 2 July 2026

EXHIBIT 2: UNH’s new policy effectively positions Shield as a first-line test for average-risk members ages 45-75

Source: UnitedHealth Group medical policy: “Molecular Oncology Testing for Solid Tumor Cancer Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Treatment Decisions” effective August 1,

HOW DOES THIS CHANGE AFFECT OUR ESTIMATES?

FIRST: HOW LARGE IS THIS NEWLY COVERED POOL?

We estimate that GH could gain exposure to an incremental ~10M members from the updated UNH coverage. How we

get there:

• UNH has 49M total domestic members. In 26Q1, UNH reported 49M total domestic members, including 30M Commercial

members and 19M Public & Senior members across Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and Medicare Supplement. Interestingly,

in its press release GH stated that UNH covers approximately 40M Americans, an estimate which appears to exclude Medicaid

members.

• Of those 49M total members, 30M are incrementally addressable. These 30M are exclusively commercial members. We

assume that the Medicare Advantage population is not incremental because they would already have had Shield coverage

(in theory, if not yet in practice - i.e., even if contracting hasn’t successfully been completed). We also assume that the

Standardized Medicare Supplement (aka “Medigap”) population is not incremental because anyone buying Medigap

coverage is already a Medicare member (and so would have had coverage for Shield under Medicare).

• Of those 30M, we estimate that 10M are in the right age bracket to be eligible for Shield. As a rough estimate, we use US

Census data and apply the age distribution to UNH’s 30M Commercial membership base to extrapolate the number of