Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Prysmian SpA (PRY.MI)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Total Revenue (€, mn) 19,650 22,512 24,890 26,812

Organic Growth (%) 5.8 8.2 10.5 7.7

Adjusted EBITDA (€, mn) 2,398 2,991 3,778 4,221

Margin (%) 12.2 13.3 15.2 15.7

Adjusted EPS 4.44 5.27 7.29 8.41

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Investment in power transmission and telecom RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

infrastructure. Faster than anticipated EBITDA margin expansion

in the Renewables Transmission division. Sales / 22,512

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Accelerating 5G investments in Europe drive Revenue 20,658 22,945

faster Telecom growth. EBITDA margins remain (€, mn) 21,790

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% elevated in the Power Grids/Electrifications China and India

divisions for longer.

0-10% Latin America 2,265

0-10% MEA RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT 1,871 2,909

0-10% Mainland China Execution issues around projects. New (€, mn) 2,141

0-10% UK competition leading to overcapacity in HV subsea

20-30% North America cabling. A fast normalisation in US low-voltage

50-60% Europe ex UK profits. Net income 1,510

1,240 1,541

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (€, mn)

1,368

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 77.8% EPS 5.27

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x (€) 4.22 5.38

5/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% 4.66

MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market