Tesla Inc: Strong 2Q Deliveries Beat Coincides with FSD Progress That Should Drive Positive Feedback Loops; Raise 2026/2027 Ests on Strong Market Trends Globally Ex-US; Maintain N, $475 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tesla Inc: Strong 2Q Deliveries Beat Coincides with FSD Progress That Should Drive Positive Feedback Loops; Raise 2026/2027 Ests on Strong Market Trends Globally Ex-US; Maintain N, $475 PT

Rajat Gupta AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6382 02 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

TSLA sits at the forefront of physical AI entering uncharted

TAMs where execution will be key to accelerating adoption and

expanding those TAMs (the Jevons paradox). Its under-

appreciated edge is deep vertical integration across hardware +

software, paired with speed of technology development: using

factories as a test bed for Optimus should lower auto COGS and

validate Humanoids at industrial scale (US/Global TAM of ~5

mn/30 mn by 2040E), a flywheel analogous to AWS/Kiva at

AMZN. In robotaxi, >10 bn miles recorded and 9 mn personal

YTD 1m 3m 12m fleet on road today should drive network-effects across robo-

Abs -5.4% 2.3% 11.6% 41.4% taxi and FSD adoption (35 mn personal TSLA fleet and 40 mn

Rel -26.8% -1.4% -8.4% 4.3%

robotaxis by 2040E), while Energy Storage benefits from data

Company Data center and grid tailwinds, and the base infrastructure can be

Shares O/S (mn) 3,756 monetized via FSD/Optimus licensing, distributed inference,

52-week range ($) 498.83-288.77 Cortex compute, and supercharger usage. We see EPS inflection

Market cap ($ mn) 1,597,309.00

Exchange rate 1.00 in 2028+ and a 50%+ growth CAGR through 2030 and beyond,

Free float (%) 88.9% with implied SoTP of $3.9T by 2035E. Valuation on near-term

3M ADV (mn) 55.72 earnings is clearly lofty, but we think TSLA deserves the benefit

3M ADV ($ mn) 22,003.7

Volatility (90 Day) 45 of the doubt on LT earnings given new TAMs are unlikely to