Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Baltic -ClassifiedsBaltic GroupClassifieds(BCG) (BCG.L)Group (BCG) (BCG.L)

The #1 classifieds platform in the Baltics with strong growth prospects.

PRICE TARGET 245p OVERWEIGHT THESIS

We derive our price target from a DCF using a 9.6% WACC and 3.0% growth rate in ▪BCG holds leading positions in Baltic

perpetuity. online classifieds, ranking as the clear #1 in

Real Estate, Automotive and General 259p

Marketplace.

Consensus Price Target Distribution 198.33p 301.80p macroeconomic conditions MS PT ▪Favourable

provide a supportive environment forSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

continued expansion.

▪Monetisation levels remain below

international benchmarks, offering

RISK REWARD CHART headroom for growth.

▪Strong market positions and an efficient

GBp cost base support higher product and AI

investment, with margins still expected to

be at the upper end of peers even after the

300p300p(+58.81%)300p(+58.81%)(+58.81%) investment cycle. 320

▪AI disintermediation and investment

requirements remain the key risks.

240 245p245p(+29.70%)245p(+29.70%)(+29.70%)

189p189p189p Consensus Rating Distribution

160 83% Overweight

155p155p(-17.95%)155p(-17.95%)(-17.95%) 8% Equal-weight

80 8% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Risk Reward Themes

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Pricing Power: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE 300p BASE CASE 245p BEAR CASE 155p

Robust margins; AI overhang removed 10% revenue CAGR 2025-30e, 9% EBITDA Pricing power and network effects

CAGR moderate

In our bull case, real estate and autos deliver