Mexico Equity Strategy: USMCA: US Declines Renewal, But Mexico’s Trade Advantage Remains in Place

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Mexico Equity Strategy: USMCA: US Declines Renewal, But Mexico’s Trade Advantage Remains in Place

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

02 July 2026

Mexico Equity Strategy

USMCA: US Declines Renewal, But Mexico’s Trade

Advantage Remains in Place

The U.S. declined to renew the USMCA in its current form at the July 1 joint Mexico Equity Strategy

ACreview, moving the agreement into an annual review process while keeping the Adrian E Huerta

treaty fully in force. Importantly, this is not a termination event and does not imply (52-81) 8152-8720

any immediate changes to existing trade rules, tariffs, or market access. Rather, it adrian.huerta@jpmorgan.com

introduces a period of heightened policy uncertainty for North American supply J.P.MorganMorganGrupoCasaFinancierode Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

chains as negotiations continue around rules of origin, transshipment controls,

Felipe Barragan Sanchez

tariff alignment, and other sector-specific issues. While the decision may renew (52-55) 5283-1666

concerns around nearshoring, manufacturing investment, and export-oriented felipe.barragan@jpmorgan.com

sectors, we view the fact that the U.S. remains committed to negotiating within the J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

USMCA framework as a constructive outcome. More importantly, Mexico is

likely to retain a significant trade advantage relative to most global competitors, Emy Shayo Cherman

(55-11) 4950-6684

particularly as the U.S. seeks to strengthen regional supply chains and reduce emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

dependence on Asia. This could create new opportunities for investment across Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

strategic industries, including sectors where Asian exporters currently hold Diego Celedon